2026 Marketing Plan — Full Year, Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan

The Year in One Page.

Full-year revenue lands 1.5% light of budget, on a total spend that's essentially flat (−0.1%) and a blended cost ratio that's basically unchanged (+0.5pp). Part of that revenue gap is a lever still on the table, not a loss: tariff-related pricing still live on the website is holding Oct–Dec below budget — take it off the site and that gap narrows. November and December alone carry roughly 40% of the year's revenue, which is exactly why the shape of Q4 matters more than any other month on this page.

TOV 2026

$115.8M

vs. $117.6M budgeted — −1.5%

Oct–Dec portion of this gap is tariffs on the site, not demand — see lever below

Total Spend 2026

$38.4M

vs. $38.4M budgeted — −0.1% (flat)

Not tariff-related — spend is flat by design

CIR 2026

33.1%

vs. 32.6% budgeted — +0.5pp

Improves automatically if Oct–Dec tariffs come off site (TOV lever)

TOV by Month — Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan, Jan–Dec 2026

Key Lever — Oct to Dec

Oct–Dec currently lands slightly under budget (94.91% / 95.92% / 97.25% of BU, D2C & Limited). That gap is tariff-related pricing still live on the website. If tariffs come off the site for Oct–Dec, TOV rises from there — closing the remaining gap to BU. This is upside still on the table, not something already assumed into the numbers above.

H2 Reallocation vs. Budget (BU)

Same Total Budget. A Deliberately Different Shape.

From June, revenue (TOV), spend, cost-efficiency (CIR) and discount rate all move away from the original budget — not randomly, but in a consistent three-act pattern: build demand ahead of peak, harvest it efficiently when it arrives, then in December switch levers entirely because gifting demand doesn't need a discount to convert.

① BUILD

JUN – AUG

Spend runs above budget in Jul/Aug to grow the demand pool. CIR runs hotter than planned — a deliberate trade, not a miss.

Revenue swings hard too: June misses badly, then Jul–Aug both land above budget — the build spend is already pulling forward real demand.

② HARVEST

SEP – NOV

Spend drops below budget while revenue holds near target. CIR improves every month — the demand built earlier converts more cheaply.

Sept revenue still beats budget outright. Oct–Nov dip slightly under — but the gap keeps closing.

③ GIFT

DEC

Spend goes back up, but discount is cut the hardest all year. Gifting demand doesn't need the discount to convert.

And revenue is closest to target all year (~97%) — the least discounted month protects the most revenue.

TOV & Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU)% change — relative

TOV Δ vs Budget (%)

Total Spend Δ vs Budget (%)

CIR & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU)pp change — percentage points, not %

CIR Δ vs Budget (pp)

Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)

The revenue gap closes into December. TOV lands at 95.2% of budget in Oct, 96.1% in Nov, 97.4% in Dec — the shortfall shrinks every month as the year turns toward the gifting window, even while the discount rate is being cut hardest (in percentage points) in that same window.

Harvest, in one month

Sept: less spend, more revenue

Spend −5.8% vs budget, revenue +7.7% vs budget, CIR −5.0pp. The clearest single proof that demand built earlier converts more cheaply.

Elastic moment

Nov holds the discount

Discount rate 33.5% → 33.0% (−0.5pp only) — virtually unchanged from budget. Black Friday still needs full promotional intensity to convert the crowd.

Inelastic moment

Dec cuts it hardest

Discount rate 27.9% → 22.0% (−5.9pp, the year's biggest cut). Spend up +13.4%, yet still 97.4% of budgeted revenue delivered.

Scope: TOV & Spend = all channels (D2C & Limited + Amazon + Alternative). CIR = Total Spend ÷ TOV, expressed in pp difference vs. BU. Full year: Spend −0.08% vs budget, TOV −1.53% vs budget, CIR 33.12% vs 32.64% budgeted (+0.48pp).

D2C & Ltd TOV / Marketing Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU)% change — relative

D2C & Ltd TOV Δ vs Budget (%)

Marketing Spend Δ vs Budget (%)

CIR (D2C) & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU)pp change — percentage points, not %

CIR (D2C) Δ vs Budget (pp)

Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)

Same closing pattern, slightly sharper. D2C & Limited TOV lands at 94.9% of budget in Oct, 95.9% in Nov, 97.25% in Dec (the sheet's own coverage figures). Stripped of Amazon's flat, undiscounted revenue, the core discount-sensitive business shows the same story with more contrast.

Harvest, in one month

Sept: less spend, more revenue

Marketing spend −6.1% vs budget, D2C revenue +8.2% vs budget, CIR −5.3pp. Even cleaner than the blended view.

Elastic moment

Nov holds the discount

Discount rate 33.5% → 33.0% (−0.5pp only) — identical to the blended view, since discount rate is always D2C & Limited-scoped.

Inelastic moment

Dec cuts it hardest

Discount rate 27.9% → 22.0% (−5.9pp). Marketing spend up +15.2% — even more than the blended view — yet still 97.25% of budgeted D2C revenue delivered.

Scope: TOV = Total D2C & Limited TOV row. Spend = "Marketing spend" row only (excludes Amazon Performance/Fee & Alternative-channel spend). CIR = Marketing spend ÷ D2C & Limited TOV, expressed in pp difference vs. BU. Discount rate is unchanged — it was already D2C & Limited-scoped in the source sheet. Full year: Marketing spend −0.08% vs budget, D2C TOV −1.68% vs budget, CIR 33.14% vs 32.61% budgeted (+0.53pp).

TOV & Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU) — Tariffs Removed Oct–Dec% change — relative

TOV Δ vs Budget (%)

Total Spend Δ vs Budget (%)

CIR & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU) — Tariffs Removed Oct–Decpp change — percentage points, not %

CIR Δ vs Budget (pp)

Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)

This is the ceiling case, not a forecast. Jun–Sep are untouched (identical to the blended Current Plan). For Oct, Nov and Dec, TOV is reset to exactly 100% of BU — i.e. tariff-related pricing fully removed from the site, with spend and discount rate left exactly as currently planned. It isolates one lever at a time: revenue recovers, nothing else changes.

Efficiency compounds

Oct & Nov get even cheaper

With spend still cut (Oct −10.3%, Nov −8.2%) and revenue now fully at budget, CIR improves to −4.3pp (Oct) and −2.8pp (Nov) — better than the Current Plan's already-favorable −2.5pp / −1.5pp.

What's left after tariffs

Dec still runs hot on CIR

Even with revenue fully recovered, CIR is still +2.5pp over budget (down from +3.0pp) — because spend is +13.4% over budget. Tariffs close the revenue gap, not the spend gap.

Full year

The year lands on budget

TOV +0.1% vs budget (essentially exact), spend still flat (−0.1%), and CIR comes in 0.05pp better than budgeted (32.59% vs 32.64%). Same money, on-target revenue.

Scope: same basis as the All Channels (blended) tab. Oct–Dec TOV set equal to BU; Spend and Discount Rate held at Current Plan levels — only the tariff-driven revenue lever is changed. D2C & Limited-only equivalent (Marketing spend ÷ D2C TOV, same Oct–Dec reset): CIR Δ Oct −4.6pp, Nov −2.9pp, Dec +2.6pp vs. budget.

Source: 2026 Marketing Plan (BU = original Budget vs. Current Plan), Jun–Dec 2026, refreshed against latest sheet (Jun TOV and Jul Marketing spend updated). % bars = relative change vs. budget. pp bars = absolute percentage-point difference vs. budget — these are never plotted on the same axis as a % figure. The D2C & Limited-only lens is marginally sharper on every metric because Amazon / Alternative-channel revenue and spend were held flat between budget and current plan and are excluded from it.