2026 Marketing Plan — Full Year, Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan

The Year in One Page.

Full-year revenue lands 1.5% light of budget, on a total spend that's essentially flat (−0.1%) and a blended cost ratio that's basically unchanged (+0.5pp). Part of that revenue gap is a lever still on the table, not a loss: tariff-related pricing still live on the website is holding Oct–Dec below budget — take it off the site and that gap narrows. November and December alone carry roughly 40% of the year's revenue, which is exactly why the shape of Q4 matters more than any other month on this page.

TOV 2026
$115.8M
vs. $117.6M budgeted — −1.5%
Oct–Dec portion of this gap is tariffs on the site, not demand — see lever below
Total Spend 2026
$38.4M
vs. $38.4M budgeted — −0.1% (flat)
Not tariff-related — spend is flat by design
CIR 2026
33.1%
vs. 32.6% budgeted — +0.5pp
Improves automatically if Oct–Dec tariffs come off site (TOV lever)
TOV by Month — Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan, Jan–Dec 2026
Budget (BU)Current Plan$0M$5M$10M$15M$20M$25MJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCT$22.3M$21.4MNOV$25.2M$24.6MDEC
Key Lever — Oct to Dec

Oct–Dec currently lands slightly under budget (94.91% / 95.92% / 97.25% of BU, D2C & Limited). That gap is tariff-related pricing still live on the website. If tariffs come off the site for Oct–Dec, TOV rises from there — closing the remaining gap to BU. This is upside still on the table, not something already assumed into the numbers above.

H2 Reallocation vs. Budget (BU)

Same Total Budget. A Deliberately Different Shape.

From June, revenue (TOV), spend, cost-efficiency (CIR) and discount rate all move away from the original budget — not randomly, but in a consistent three-act pattern: build demand ahead of peak, harvest it efficiently when it arrives, then in December switch levers entirely because gifting demand doesn't need a discount to convert.

① BUILD
JUN – SEP
Spend runs above budget in Jul/Aug to grow the demand pool. CIR runs hotter than planned — a deliberate trade, not a miss.
Revenue swings: June misses, Jul–Aug land above budget, Sep holds above too — the build spend pulls real demand before Harvest kicks in Oct.
② HARVEST
OCT – NOV
Spend drops below budget while revenue holds near target. CIR improves — the demand built through Sep converts more cheaply in Oct–Nov.
Oct dips slightly under budget, Nov follows — but the gap keeps closing as gifting season approaches.
③ GIFT
DEC
Spend goes back up, but discount is cut the hardest all year. Gifting demand doesn't need the discount to convert.
And revenue is closest to target all year (~97%) — the least discounted month protects the most revenue.
TOV & Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU)% change — relative
TOV Δ vs Budget (%)
Total Spend Δ vs Budget (%)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0%+10%+20%-10%-20%-22.0%-17.2%JUN+5.6%+19.1%JUL+9.4%+11.2%AUG+7.7%-5.8%SEP-4.8%-10.3%OCT-3.9%-8.2%NOV-2.6%+13.4%DEC
CIR & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU)pp change — percentage points, not %
CIR Δ vs Budget (pp)
Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0pp+2pp+4pp+6pp+8pp-2pp-4pp-6pp-8pp+2.1pp-5.7ppJUN+4.1pp-2.5ppJUL+0.6pp-0.8ppAUG-5.0pp-3.0ppSEP-2.5pp-0.9ppOCT-1.5pp-0.5ppNOV+3.0pp-5.9ppDEC
The revenue gap closes into December. TOV lands at 95.2% of budget in Oct, 96.1% in Nov, 97.4% in Dec — the shortfall shrinks every month as the year turns toward the gifting window, even while the discount rate is being cut hardest (in percentage points) in that same window.
Harvest, in one month
Sept: less spend, more revenue
Spend −5.8% vs budget, revenue +7.7% vs budget, CIR −5.0pp. The clearest single proof that demand built earlier converts more cheaply.
Elastic moment
Nov holds the discount
Discount rate 33.5% → 33.0% (−0.5pp only) — virtually unchanged from budget. Black Friday still needs full promotional intensity to convert the crowd.
Inelastic moment
Dec cuts it hardest
Discount rate 27.9% → 22.0% (−5.9pp, the year's biggest cut). Spend up +13.4%, yet still 97.4% of budgeted revenue delivered.

Scope: TOV & Spend = all channels (D2C & Limited + Amazon + Alternative). CIR = Total Spend ÷ TOV, expressed in pp difference vs. BU. Full year: Spend −0.08% vs budget, TOV −1.53% vs budget, CIR 33.12% vs 32.64% budgeted (+0.48pp).

D2C & Ltd TOV / Marketing Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU)% change — relative
D2C & Ltd TOV Δ vs Budget (%)
Marketing Spend Δ vs Budget (%)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0%+10%+20%-10%-20%-22.2%-17.7%JUN+5.8%+20.1%JUL+9.9%+11.8%AUG+8.2%-6.1%SEP-5.1%-10.9%OCT-4.1%-8.5%NOV-2.8%+15.2%DEC
CIR (D2C) & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU)pp change — percentage points, not %
CIR (D2C) Δ vs Budget (pp)
Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0pp+2pp+4pp+6pp+8pp-2pp-4pp-6pp-8pp+2.0pp-5.7ppJUN+4.3pp-2.5ppJUL+0.6pp-0.8ppAUG-5.3pp-3.0ppSEP-2.6pp-0.9ppOCT-1.6pp-0.5ppNOV+3.2pp-5.9ppDEC
Same closing pattern, slightly sharper. D2C & Limited TOV lands at 94.9% of budget in Oct, 95.9% in Nov, 97.25% in Dec (the sheet's own coverage figures). Stripped of Amazon's flat, undiscounted revenue, the core discount-sensitive business shows the same story with more contrast.
Harvest, in one month
Sept: less spend, more revenue
Marketing spend −6.1% vs budget, D2C revenue +8.2% vs budget, CIR −5.3pp. Even cleaner than the blended view.
Elastic moment
Nov holds the discount
Discount rate 33.5% → 33.0% (−0.5pp only) — identical to the blended view, since discount rate is always D2C & Limited-scoped.
Inelastic moment
Dec cuts it hardest
Discount rate 27.9% → 22.0% (−5.9pp). Marketing spend up +15.2% — even more than the blended view — yet still 97.25% of budgeted D2C revenue delivered.

Scope: TOV = Total D2C & Limited TOV row. Spend = "Marketing spend" row only (excludes Amazon Performance/Fee & Alternative-channel spend). CIR = Marketing spend ÷ D2C & Limited TOV, expressed in pp difference vs. BU. Discount rate is unchanged — it was already D2C & Limited-scoped in the source sheet. Full year: Marketing spend −0.08% vs budget, D2C TOV −1.68% vs budget, CIR 33.14% vs 32.61% budgeted (+0.53pp).

Full-year actual outcome, both levers applied. Jan–Jul are the actual Current Plan (unchanged). Aug and Sep carry the +$150k spend / +$2.10-per-$1 TOV upside. Oct, Nov and Dec have TOV reset to exactly 100% of Budget (tariffs off), with spend and discount left as currently planned. CIR is Spend ÷ TOV for each month, so it reacts to both the spend and TOV changes above.

TOV by Month — Budget (BU) vs. Actual Outcome, Jan–Dec 2026
Budget (BU)Actual Outcome$0M$5M$10M$15M$20M$25MJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCT$22.3M$22.3MNOV$25.2M$25.2MDEC
Spend by Month — Budget (BU) vs. Actual Outcome, Jan–Dec 2026
Budget (BU)Actual Outcome$0M$2M$4M$6M$8MJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCT$7.6M$6.9MNOV$4.6M$5.3MDEC
CIR by Month — Budget (BU) vs. Actual Outcome, Jan–Dec 2026% of TOV
Budget (BU)Actual Outcome0%10%20%30%40%50%JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEP43.2%38.7%OCTNOV18.4%20.9%DEC
TOV & Spend Δ vs. Budget (BU) — Tariffs Off (Oct–Dec) + Aug–Sep Upside (+$150k)% change — relative
TOV Δ vs Budget (%)
Total Spend Δ vs Budget (%)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0%+10%+20%-10%-20%-22.0%-17.2%JUN+5.6%+19.1%JUL+14.4%+17.8%AUG+12.6%+0.0%SEP+0.0%-10.3%OCT+0.0%-8.2%NOV+0.0%+13.4%DEC
CIR & Discount Rate Δ vs. Budget (BU) — Tariffs Off (Oct–Dec) + Aug–Sep Upside (+$150k)pp change — percentage points, not %
CIR Δ vs Budget (pp)
Discount Rate Δ vs Budget (pp)
BUILDHARVESTGIFT0pp+2pp+4pp+6pp+8pp-2pp-4pp-6pp-8pp+2.1pp-5.7ppJUN+4.1pp-2.5ppJUL+1.1pp-0.8ppAUG-4.5pp-3.0ppSEP-4.3pp-0.9ppOCT-2.8pp-0.5ppNOV+2.5pp-5.9ppDEC
Two levers stacked into one ceiling case. Jun–Jul are untouched. Aug and Sep each get +$150k spend above current plan, returning $2.10 in TOV for every incremental $1 spent — +$315k TOV per month (+$300k spend → +$630k TOV combined). For Oct, Nov and Dec, TOV is separately reset to exactly 100% of BU — tariff-related pricing fully removed from the site, with spend and discount rate left exactly as currently planned. The two levers don't interact; each is isolated in its own months.
Aug–Sep — spend upside
+$300k spend → +$630k TOV
Aug: spend +17.8%, TOV +14.4% (CIR +1.1pp). Sep: spend flat (was −5.8%), TOV +12.6% (CIR improves −5.0pp → −4.5pp). Both at a $2.10-per-$1 return.
Oct–Dec — tariffs off
TOV resets to 100% of BU
Spend and discount stay at Current Plan levels (Oct −10.3%, Nov −8.2%, Dec +13.4% spend). CIR improves to −4.3pp (Oct), −2.8pp (Nov); Dec still runs +2.5pp hot on spend.
Full year — both levers pulled
TOV +0.6% vs budget
Combining tariffs-off (which alone gets the year to +0.1%) with the Aug–Sep upside: TOV +0.6% vs budget, Spend +0.7% (up from −0.1%, on the extra $300k), CIR 32.70% vs 32.64% budgeted (+0.06pp, essentially flat).

Scope: same basis as the All Channels (blended) tab. Jun–Jul unchanged. Aug/Sep: current-plan spend +$150k each, TOV up at a $2.10-per-$1 return (+$315k/month). Oct–Dec: TOV set equal to BU; Spend and Discount Rate held at Current Plan levels — only the tariff-driven revenue lever is changed. Full-year KPI combines both levers on top of the actual Current Plan baseline (TOV −1.53%, Spend −0.08%, CIR 33.12% vs 32.64%).

Source: 2026 Marketing Plan (BU = original Budget vs. Current Plan), Jun–Dec 2026, refreshed against latest sheet (Jun TOV and Jul Marketing spend updated). % bars = relative change vs. budget. pp bars = absolute percentage-point difference vs. budget — these are never plotted on the same axis as a % figure. The D2C & Limited-only lens is marginally sharper on every metric because Amazon / Alternative-channel revenue and spend were held flat between budget and current plan and are excluded from it.